Should You Wager On A Fat Man Super Bowl TD?

 

According to the Yale Book of Quotations, it was Texas Tech sports information director Ralph Carpenter who deserves credit for coining the phrase “It ain’t over until the fat lady sings,” forever interring it into the sporting lexicon.

After watching the Texas A&M Aggies rally from a significant deficit to tie an NCAA basketball game against the Red Raiders, Carpenter uttered the oft-repeated sentence, a reference to opera singers.

Years later, what isn’t known is how Carpenter would react to a Fat Man TD being on a list of super bowl prop bets for Super Bowl LV between the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

DraftKings is offering a two-sided prop wager on what the online sportsbook is referring to as a “Fat Man TD.” They will pay out on any touchdown scored by an offensive or defensive lineman during the big game between the Bucs and Chiefs on Feb. 7th at Tampa Bay’s Raymond James Stadium.

"Red Raiders" by Wikimedia is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA 2.0

The Fat Man Breakdown

The first half of this prop wager covers just offensive lineman. If any offensive lineman were to score a TD during Super Bowl LV and you were to wager on that outcome, it would be worth odds of +2,000. That means if you were to bet $100 on this event and it did occur, you’d earn a $2,000 profit from your wager.

However, if the more likely outcome happens and no offensive lineman finds himself scoring a TD during the big game, that pays out at -10,000 odds. In this case, you’d be required to wager $10,000 in order to turn a $100 profit.

The second Fat Man TD prop wager takes into account both offensive or defensive linemen. The latter, of course, own a better chance of finding the end zone from a fumble recovery or an interception.

Yes odds in this instance are worth just +800. The betting line on no is -2000.

Could It Happen?

As the odds suggest, a Fat Man TD is very unlikely to result. However, it is not out of the realm of possibility. 

During their 34-20 victory over the Baltimore Ravens in Week 3 of the 2020 NFL regular season, Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes threw a two-yard TD pass to 6-foot-7, 315-pound offensive tackle Eric Fisher. 

Unfortunately, Fisher won’t be an eligible receiver in Super Bowl LV. He’s on the injured list. Fisher suffered an Achilles injury in Kansas City’s 38-24 victory over the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Championship Game and is out for the season.

Still, the fact that he caught a TD earlier in the campaign displays that in fact the Chiefs do have a Fat Man TD option in their playbook.

"Patrick Mahomes" by Jamie Squire is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA 2.0

Oddly enough, neither team recorded a Fat Man TD by a defensive lineman this season. In Super Bowl 50, Denver Broncos defensive tackle Malik Jackson scored the game’s first TD when he recovered a fumble by Carolina Panthers QB Cam Newton in the end zone. That was the most recent Fat Man TD in the Super Bowl.

Although not technically a Fat Man TD, during his nine Super Bowls with the New England Patriots, Tampa Bay QB Tom Brady did throw a pair of scoring passes to linebacker Mike Vrabel. 

Super Bowl Props Born From Fat Man TD

Fittingly, it was a Fat Man TD that spawned the Super Bowl prop bets craze. During the 1985 NFL season, Chicago Bears 6-foot-2, 335-pound rookie defensive tackle William (The Refrigerator) Perry became a cause celebre. Bears coach Mike Ditka began deploying the stout, gap-toothed first-year player as a short-yardage fullback. Perry rushed for two TDs and also caught a TD pass.

Prior to the Super Bowl XX between the Bears and Patriots, a Las Vegas sportsbook set odds on a Fridge TD at 20-1. So many people bet on this prop, by game time the odds were down to 2-1. 

With the Bears ahead 37-3 in the third quarter, Ditka sent Perry in during a goal-line situation. He crashed over for a one-yard TD.

The sportsbook took a bath on the prop, losing around $100,000. But the intel they gained from learning the value of Super Bowl novelty props spawned a cottage industry. Today, about 50 percent of Super Bowl wagers are placed on prop bets.